Below normal monsoon for Andhra Pradesh, but likely short, heavy spells: IMD

Dark clouds hover over Ongole on Thursday. Intermittent drizzle over the last few days has brought relief to people from the sweltering heat. | Photo credit: KOMMURI SRINIVAS

While Andhra Pradesh is likely to witness below-normal southwest monsoon rainfall overall, there is a possibility of short-lived high-intensity rains at a few places, said D. Sivananda Pai, senior scientist at the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and head of the regional meteorological center in Chennai.

Dr. Sivananda Pai was in Vijayawada to attend a stakeholder meeting organized by IMD-Amaravati on “Outlook for Southwest Monsoon 2026 – Multi-Weather Hazard Preparedness and Warning Services” held at the National Disaster Management Institute near Agiripalli on June 2.

In an interview with The Hindu on the sidelines of the event, Dr. Pai said weather models for Andhra Pradesh indicate the possibility of low pressure systems forming at much lower altitudes early this monsoon, which may lead to one or two days of heavy rains in the coastal areas, which will limit the impact of El Nino in the state. However, such short-duration events can cause flooding in cities.

“Low pressure systems, usually formed over north Bay of Bengal, move along Odisha coast to reach Rajasthan and bring widespread rains en route. This time the systems, if formed, may not travel long but are likely to stall shortly after entering AP and Telangana,” he said.

Hence, two Telugu states may experience heavy rain but other states may not, despite El Nino conditions.

Dr. Pai said if no low-pressure systems develop, then the state’s rainfall could be largely insufficient.

Referring to weather models, the scientist said the state is likely to see more thunderstorms, lightning and strong winds this season, which will affect agricultural activities.

AP hit hardest in 2002

According to OP Sreejith, an IMD scientist working at Climate Research and Services, Pune, between 1950 and 2025, El Nino conditions were recorded 17 times. Andhra Pradesh experienced severely deficient rainfall during the southwest monsoon in 1963, 1968, 1972, 1982, 1987, 1994, 2002 and 2004, with 2002 being the worst affected. While the normal rainfall for the season is 521.6 mm, the rainfall deficit during the SW monsoon in 2002 was 39.7%.

During the previous El Nino year in 2023, the state’s rainfall deficit during the SW monsoon was 6.8%.

Each El Nina year is unique because several factors are at play. When asked how the rainfall distribution will be in the state this season, Dr. Sreejith said the shortage “may not be big”. However, the monsoon will be below normal, he added.

Published – 05 Jun 2026 12:43 IST