A new analysis suggests that President Trump’s proposed $2,000 tariffs could cost around $450 billion, offering only a modest boost to economic growth and jobs, Axios reported. At that price, the payments would reportedly exceed more than a year’s worth of tariff revenue, leaving no funds for other purposes Trump has mentioned, such as debt relief or relief for farmers.
After months of hinting at the idea, Trump and his economic team have recently stepped up public discussion of the controls as the president tries to push the Supreme Court to uphold his broader tariff program.
“Tariffs allow us to pay a dividend”
According to a Forbes report, Trump mentioned last week that the payments would come “sometime next year, within the year,” adding, “We’ve taken a lot of money from tariffs. Tariffs allow us to pay dividends.”
While declaring that the promised $2,000 would not be released to “high-income earners,” Trump took part in the Nov. 9 Truth Social and said, “People who are against tariffs are FOOLS! We are now the richest, most respected country in the world, with almost no inflation and a record stock market price. 401K.”
He went on to say, “We are taking in trillions of dollars and will soon start paying down our HUGE DEBT, $37 trillion. Record investment in the US, factories and factories are going up everywhere. A dividend of at least $2,000 per person (excluding high earners!) will be paid to all.”
Trump clarified Monday night in the Oval Office that the checks could begin rolling out as early as mid-2026, though Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent noted that Congress would have to pass legislation to authorize them, a step that is far from certain, according to an Axios report.
The Yale Budget Lab released an analysis Monday night that estimated Trump’s proposed $2,000 checks would cost roughly $450 billion if distributed to every individual with an income under $100,000, the report said.
For context, the government reportedly collected $195 billion in tariff revenue in fiscal year 2025 and is projected to bring in about $420 billion in fiscal year 2026. The Yale study projected that the controls would increase GDP by 0.3 percentage points and increase employment by 0.15 percentage points in 2026, though these effects will diminish over time.
Despite concerns that another big stimulus payment could cause inflation, similar to the “stimmy” under the Biden administration, the lab found only a minimal impact. Inflation is estimated to rise by less than 0.1 percentage point in the coming years if the checks are issued.
The push comes amid a growing affordability crisis that has already created political challenges for Republicans, the report said. The proposed timing would put the payments in the hands of voters just before the critical 2026 midterm elections.
